EIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP RELEGATION CANDIDATES RANKED BASED ON LIKELIHOOD OF DROPPING TO LEAGUE ONE

Now that the tiresome March international break is over, *everyone* can focus back on the Championship as this run-in has immense potential.

While the battle for automatic promotion is shaping up beautifully as Leeds United, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton tussle over two places, the mean-spirited individuals among us will get the most enjoyment from the fight to avoid relegation.

Bottom-placed Rotherham United are not *yet* officially relegated, but with this writer’s beloved team 19 points adrift of safety, they are as good as gone as their depressingly abject season nears a conclusion.

That leaves eight teams – Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield Town, Birmingham City, QPR, Stoke City, Plymouth Argyle, Blackburn Rovers and Millwall – to desperately scratch and claw at avoiding the drop to League One. An eight-club relegation scrap of teams separated by just five points with eight games to go? Sign us up.

The Championship is unpredictable even at the best of times but there’s no telling what could unfold between now and the final day on May 4. And yet, silly old me has decided that it would be a good idea to predict which of the eight teams will get relegated. It’s almost as if I’m a sucker for being made to look a fool.

Anyhoo, I’ve committed to the cause now so from least to most likely to fall to League One, here is a ranking of the eight Championship relegation candidates…

8th) Millwall

Current position = 16th (43 points)

When a floundering club needs to find a way to breathe life into their season, a new manager bounce usually does the trick.

After a loss to Sheffield Wednesday left Millwall in a perilous position, club legend Neil Harris was drafted in from Cambridge United for a second stint as manager.

Managers are often told to ‘never go back’, but Harris’ dream start (three wins in five games) has significantly reduced Millwall’s relegation fears.

When Harris’ comeback was announced, it was clear that Millwall were hitting the panic button and I’m still not sold that this appointment will pay off in the long run. But for now, they are well on track for safety as their returning manager does a Neil Warnock.

7th) QPR

Current position = 20th (40 points)

Speaking of a team who have benefited from a managerial change, we have QPR, who would likely be dead and buried like Rotherham United had they stuck with Gareth Ainsworth for much longer.

The former Wycombe Wanderers boss was afforded time in the summer and at the start of this season after QPR narrowly avoided the drop last season, but his shackled players were not taking to his negative approach as they sat glumly in the relegation places.

QPR have followed a similar path as a couple of their rivals in relying on a Championship veteran to get them out of the mire. Instead of going for a manager of Warnock’s mould, Spanish coach Marti Cifuentes was brought in from Swedish side Hammarby IF.

Under Cifuentes, attacking pair Ilias Chair and Chris Willock have benefited from being let off the leash as QPR’s form has drastically picked up. With momentum on their side, they look primed to be hot on the heels of Millwall in marching towards safety.

6th) Stoke City

Current position = 19th (41 points)

Like the two aforementioned sides, Stoke City were one of the form teams from the bottom half heading into the international break.

Ex-Plymouth Argyle boss Steven Schumacher is not the first manager to find life difficult at the Bet365 Stadium since their relegation from the Premier League in 2018.

Since then, Stoke have been stuck in the Championship bottom half and were sleepwalking towards relegation before their recent upturn in results, which has seen them win three of their last seven games.

More experienced bosses than Schumacher have tried and failed to carry Stoke out of their bottom-half misery and while they are far from safe, their Liverpudlian manager has overcome intense sack talk to grind out results when they were desperately needed to ease their relegation worries.

5th) Blackburn Rovers

Current position = 17th (42 points)

New Rovers manager John Eustace returned to management in February after being unceremoniously sacked by Birmingham City (more on them later) earlier this season.

Previous boss Jon Dahl Tomasson had helped Blackburn to surpass expectations last season as they contended for the play-offs but they were on the decline before his departure as they were dragged into an unexpected relegation battle.

Particularly with 21-goal Championship top scorer Sammie Szmodics, Blackburn certainly have enough quality in their team to stay afloat.

It will be concerning for Blackburn that they are yet to win under Eustace but he is copying the formula that worked so well at Birmingham to make his current side more difficult to beat.

His eight league games in charge have resulted in six draws and two losses so even with a tough run-in coming up, their defensive resoluteness and sprinkle of quality in attack should see Blackburn pick up enough points to survive.

4th) Sheffield Wednesday

Current position = 23rd (38 points)

Albeit with a poorer squad, Sheff Weds were in a similar position to QPR during the early weeks of the season as a manager change was required following the disastrous appointment of Xisco Munoz, who was not up to the difficult Hillsborough task.

Controversial owner Dejphon Chansiri has not made too many good decisions while in control of the Owls, but he got the appointment of Danny Rohl absolutely right.

Chansiri handed Rohl his first manager’s job and he has worked wonders to give Sheff Weds a fighting chance of avoiding relegation.

The inexperienced German – who has been flanked by an impressive coaching team which includes Chris Powell – has got the absolute maximum out of a limited Sheff Weds squad.

Realistically, they should be in a similar boat to Rotherham given their lack of quality, but Rohl’s magic touch has saved Wednesday’s season and even after back-to-back losses to Leeds United and Ipswich Town, the belief in his squad and recent performance levels suggests they have enough to get over the line.

Regardless of whether they stay up or not, Rohl is primed for bigger and better things heading into next season…

3rd) Birmingham City

Current position = 21st (39 points)

Blues supporters have been dragged through the wringer this season as their new trigger-happy American owners learn on the job. They got it badly wrong when they replaced Eustace with Wayne Rooney, but they have at least attempted to remedy their mistakes in recent months.

Their decision to appoint Tony Mowbray as Rooney’s successor was refreshingly sensible and they were on track to stay up at a canter before the ex-Sunderland boss had to take a break from football for medical reasons.

The good work done by Mowbray was undone during their six-game winless run under interim boss Mark Venus. With Birmingham spiralling towards relegation and with Mowbray unable to return, a desperate change had to be made.

Tom Wagner and Co. realised this and brought Gary Rowett back to the club on a short-term deal until the summer.

It’s hard to judge the 50-year-old – who was sacked by Millwall earlier this season – before he’s had a couple of games, but the Eustace-esque manager will make Birmingham tougher to beat and their survival chances are certainly stronger with him in charge than they were had Venus stuck it out.

2nd) Plymouth Argyle

Current position = 18th (41 points)

Onto the relegation spots now and first we have Plymouth Argyle. For much of this campaign, it appeared that last season’s League One champions were set for a cushty but undramatic season around mid-table after their gamble to buy Morgan Whittaker and Bali Mumba from Swansea City and Norwich City for around £2m combined was paying off.

But their season was plunged into disarray ahead of the New Year as Stoke snatched Schumacher, while loan stars Finn Azaz and Luke Cundle headed elsewhere.

Schumacher’s replacement – Ian Foster – initially settled in nicely but Plymouth’s run of one win in nine games leaves them deep in trouble.

Of the eight sides in danger, Plymouth have netted the most goals but they have only scored six times in their last nine outings, while their defensive record is not good enough to cover for this dip.

If star player Whittaker does not come up trumps during the run-in, Plymouth are facing relegation straight back down to League One.

1st) Huddersfield Town

Current position = 22nd (39 points)

And finally, there’s Huddersfield Town (sorry, Winty), who only have themselves to blame for the position they are in.

The Terriers were set for relegation last season before Warnock inspired *another* great escape and after agreeing to stay on in the summer, the miracle worker oversaw a strong start to this season even after limited activity in the transfer market.

Had Warnock stayed on until the New Year, Huddersfield may have been out of sight with no fears of relegation. Instead, owner Kevin M. Nagle appointed Darren Moore in September to lead the club into their post-takeover era, but he only lasted until January.

After sacking Moore, Huddersfield opted for a left-field option as Andre Breitenreiter arrived as their new head coach.

Huddersfield beat Watford in the German’s first game but this preceded a four-game winless run, which is still ongoing after a disappointing goalless draw against Rotherham United.

Even with ten men, this result felt like a big blow given how dire the Millers have been this season and with Huddersfield’s fading in games becoming an increasingly common theme, the sight of League One is growing more prominent in their mirror.

2024-03-28T08:15:24Z dg43tfdfdgfd